This post is largely a translation of an article from Nikkei Trendy. The original can be found at
this link.
In the current mobile landscape in Japan, only Docomo has a next-generation LTE network. The "Xi" (pronounced "crossy", for some reason) went live at the end of 2011, accompanied by a line of LTE-compatible smartphones. This, in addition to Docomo's reputation for speed and connectivity, would appear to have put Docomo in a strong position for 2012. On the other hand, new iPhone carrier au is known for a strong network, but its iPhone lacks several features that competitor Softbank's model has, due to as-yet unresolved network compatibility issues. Finally, Softbank has the most established iPhone user base and a competitive pricing structure, but has a reputation for poor signals, dropped calls and slow data transfer speeds.
That could all change in 2012.
With the proliferation of smartphones in Japan, the current 3G infrastructure is under severe pressure. If the current smartphone adoption rate were to continue without additional infrastructure investment by carriers, we would start to see a significant rise in cases of dropped connectivity in 2012. Mobile carriers, therefore, will this year pursue an urgent strategy to try and get smartphone users to move to LTE networks, which are more efficient and able to support more users. For users, this means that this will be the year when it becomes possible to get a phone/line combination capable of speeds in excess of 37.5Mbps in the normal price range. In addition, we should start to see LTE-compatible mobile routers ("pocket WiFi") appearing as a further strategy to ease the burden on 3G networks.
A number of significant changes is likely to take place throughout 2012:
- February: Softbank Mobile to introduce "Softbank 4G", with a maximum downstream speed of 110Mbps
- March: E-Mobile LTE service to start. Maximum speeds between 37.5~75Mbps
- April: au's iPhone network speeds to increase to up to double the current speed
- July: Softbank's iPhone network quality could improve
- Autumn: Docomo Xi network speeds to increase to 100Mbps downstream, starting in regional areas
- December: au to start LTE operations. Plans to cover a wider area than Docomo.
February: Softbank Mobile to introduce "Softbank 4G", with a maximum speed of 110Mbps
Softbank's 4G network is set to debut in February (the TV advertising campaign is already underway). The maximum downstream speed will be 110Mbps, which on paper beats Docomo's current maximum Xi speed of 37.5Mbps. Users may harbour the usual concern about Softbank's network coverage, but Softbank has promised 99% coverage of government-designated cities by the end of the fiscal year 2012. Docomo and au are making their coverage promises in terms of population covered, so it is not clear how this compares. Pricing structure is also as yet unannounced.
A further concern may be what phone models will be compatible with this new network. At first, the only model supported will be the Softbank Ultra WiFi 4G mobile router. The network will operate in a different frequency range from Docomo and au's offerings, using the same band as China Mobile ("TD-LTE"). China Mobile, with 600 million subscribers, will wield some influence with handset makers, so Softbank will be relying on this for their handset supply.
March: E-Mobile LTE service to start. Maximum speeds from 37.5~75Mbps
E-Mobile have set their goals for their upcoming LTE rollout high; they aim to cover 70% of the population by the end of the fiscal year 2012, while Docomo has only promised to cover 60% of the population in the same period. Plus, they aim to beat Docomo on speed, and have announced that they have no intention of losing out to their competitors on the price front either.
In terms of speed, E-Mobile's LTE network will largely operate with a bandwidth of 5MHz outdoors. Indoors, and outdoors in certain areas only, it will operate with a bandwidth of 10MHz. In 10MHz areas, speeds of up to 75Mbps will be obtainable, while in 5MHz areas, speeds will reach as high as 37.5Mbps only. It is most likely that in major urban areas, the outdoor speed will be in the 37.5Mbps range.
April: au's iPhone network speed to increase up to double the current speed
In April, au will introduce new "EV-DO Advanced" technology nationwide. This technology improves the efficiency of the way traffic is handled by the base station, leading to up to double speeds in actual use. This effect should be noticeable for users of both au's iPhone and other smartphones.
July: Softbank's iPhone network quality could improve
In July, part of the 900Mhz band will be made available for use. Known as the "platinum band", this frequency range has a high penetration over long distances. The band will be allocated to one company this spring, with Softbank and E-Mobile the main contenders among mobile carriers. If Softbank manages to acquire this band, the 900MHz-capable iPhone and other smartphones should benefit with increased signal and speeds.
Autumn: Docomo Xi network speeds to increase to 100Mbps, starting in regional areas
The current Xi maximum speed outdoors is 37.5Mbps. This is a limitation of the frequency band used by Docomo, but this autumn they plan to increase the speeds to a maximum of 100Mbps. However, this increase will start from regional areas, with Kyushu, Okinawa and Hokuriku. In Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya, the frequency band is being used by other wireless services until the end of 2013, so the increase is slated for 2014.
With this expansion, Docomo plans to cover 60% of the population by the end of fiscal year 2012. Once this is achieved, Docomo will increase coverage from cities with a population of over 100,000 to smaller cities with populations over 50,000.
December: au to start LTE operations. Plans to cover a wider area than Docomo
au's LTE operations are scheduled to start in December with a maximum downstream speed of 75Mbps. A point to note here is that au plans to cover as much as 70% of the population right from the start of operations. With Docomo's coverage at that point in time estimated to be around 50%, au should hold an advantage here. The 800Mhz band which au will use will be a big factor in helping increase coverage over its rivals.
In conjunction with the LTE rollout, expect a wave of LTE-compatible smartphones in au's winter lineup.
So by the end of 2012, we could see Docomo overtaken in both (LTE) coverage and network speed by rivals Softbank, au and even E-Mobile. We should also see a gradual migration of smartphone users from 3G services to LTE services, freeing up the 3G bands for feature-phone users and relieving network congestion in general. A massive factor in this change could be the potential introduction of an LTE iPhone 5 in summer, with Docomo, Softbank and au all working to get their networks ready for this guaranteed big seller (if rumours are to be believed).
If you are planning on getting a new or replacement smartphone this year on any network other than Docomo, it might be advisable to wait until LTE rolls out on Softbank and au. Then see what models are out there. If you can't wait till then, Docomo's Xi LTE service looks like a good bet, and is cheaper than FOMA (as long as your usage is under 7GB/month). Finally, it remains to be seen whether SIM-free phones bought abroad will work on the Japanese LTE networks, given the variety of frequency bands it seems will be in use by the end of this year. Take care, and make sure you do plenty of research if this is the path you plan to go down.